My journey as a punter started no differently than most other people. I got into racing as a hobby in the mid-1990s as a twenty-year-old and while I did everything I could to learn about racing, there’s no doubt my hobby came at a cost over the first few years via betting losses. While I was very sensible in the way I handled my money, I certainly made plenty of mistakes in regards to the types of horses I was backing and my general decision-making around betting.

As time went on, I found that I had a real passion for betting and loved the colour and excitement of actually being at the track. I worked tirelessly to learn as much as I could about race analysis and betting from literature all over the world, other punters and most importantly, my own experience. That process has led me to where I am now, with more than 13 years of professional betting success behind me and a few successful years as a serious hobby punter before that.

A short while ago, I was reflecting on that journey and what actually made the difference. What are the key changes I made over time in my betting strategy and decision-making that led me to where I am today?

While some of those changes involved the development of my own racing intelligence data and the use of software such as “GTX”, there were a number of key changes I made that were very straightforward and easy to implement. They were basically rules I started following to help put my betting on a more profitable path. I didn’t make them all at the same time, but when I look back now, the combination of these rules was responsible for significantly increasing my betting profits and leading me to the position I am in now.

 

SIX KEY RULES TO INCREASE YOUR BETTING PROFIT

 

1. Stick to win betting

 

The easiest way to make a profit as a punter is through win betting. Plenty of punters are attracted to the idea of outlaying a small amount on a Trifecta, First 4 or even Quaddrella with the hope of landing a big result, but the reality is that they are much harder to profit from than win betting.

 

There are 3 key reasons for this

• Betting into win markets and working to get good prices (see below) means that you are effectively playing against a 6%-8% market disadvantage at most. When it comes to exotic bets on the Tab, the takeout rate is upwards of 20%, which is two to three times the disadvantage you have to overcome in order to show a profit.

 

• Win betting makes it easy to stake your bets optimally to maximise your profit. With exotics, the typical approach that many punters take in having the same level stake amount on each exotic combination (including Quadrellas) is incredibly inefficient. You should not have the same amount on a combination that has a 5,000/1 chance of winning as one that has a 100/1 chance.

 

Have you ever taken a Quadrella but still lost on the bet because the winners were all in the first few favourites in the market? To have any chance of beating the 20%+ takeout rate, you really need to be creating separate tickets for the individual combinations in your Quinellas, Trifectas, First 4’s and Quaddrellas and then staking them according to their winning chance / profit edge. If you get lucky early and land a couple of big dividends, then you may be in profit for some time, but in the long run the reality of the high takeout rate and level staking will see you lose.

 

• The low strike rates associated with exotic betting make it extremely difficult to sustain your betting through normally expected losing runs. The average punter’s level stake exotic bets would typically have a strike rate of between 5% and 20% at most. Unless you are betting very conservative amounts, the drawdown on your bank during normal losing runs will wipe you out.

 

Did you know that even if you take an aggressive Quadrella, up to 65% of the win market percentage in each race, then your chance of winning is still only 17.8%? You will win less than one in five bets, which means you will at some stage go 30 or more without a collect. A typical Quadrella I see recommended by media tipsters has only a 10% to 12% chance of winning.

 

With win betting your strike rate will typically be in the 25% to 35% range if backing one runner per race, up to 50-60% or more if you back multiple runners for a smaller profit margin on each race.  Losing runs at these levels are still difficult to deal with, but much more manageable than with exotic bets.

 

Very early on I developed a philosophy which says:

“Don’t make the task of winning money any more complicated than it needs to be.”

 

The classic application of this philosophy is to stick to win betting. Keep things simple. If you can’t make money backing horses to win, then it’s almost certain you won’t make money through exotics.

 

2. Focus on pace / handy runners – avoid back markers

 

I can’t stress enough what a difference this one single rule will make to your betting profit. Decades of historical racing data and even my own betting records clearly show that it’s extremely difficult to profit from horses that race back in the field, while those that race on the lead or just off are very profitable. Horses that race midfield or worse are much more subject to race pace, luck in running and generally face a more difficult task to reach higher speeds for longer periods of time in order to make up ground and win.

The end result is that they don’t win anywhere near as often as their market price suggests. In fact, I will almost guarantee that if you analyse 100+ of your own bets by settling position and group those that settled 7^th or worse in running, the result will be a significant loss.

Of course it’s not possible to predict with 100% accuracy where a horse will settle, but you can at the very least avoid those that you are confident WILL NOT settle in the first four in running.

My results improved immediately when I focused on backing pace / handy runners and simply refused to back those likely to be further back in the field, no matter how much I liked them. It takes discipline to put this rule into practice and persistence to keep following it if you miss a winner or two, but I can guarantee that your long-term results will be so much better for it.

These days with the benefit of experience and good racing intelligence I am more flexible with this rule and will bend it if the track bias on the day is actually an advantage for horses to make up ground or there are other powerful angles that give me confidence to take the chance. However for more than 10 years I stuck rigidly to backing pace / handy runners. This one rule alone will make a huge difference to your overall betting results.

 

3. Get the best price

 

It sounds common sense, but I’ve been amazed over the years by how many punters I’ve come across that take a casual attitude towards the price they take for their bets.

Across a year, the benefits you gain from getting the best price can be the difference between winning and losing. Let’s say you have 15 bets per week focusing mainly on Saturday’s and have an average bet of $100.  That’s $78,000 turnover for the year. If you back 218 winners (28% SR) and can increase your average dividend by 20 cents through just working to get better prices, then that’s 218 x 100 x 0.2 = $4,360 in extra profit for the year. That $4,360 represents 5.6% on turnover, a very healthy profit margin.

If you have more than 15 bets per week or bet in larger amounts then getting better prices will add up to a significant amount of extra money each year. Regardless though, the percentage relative to your turnover is the same and no punter I know can afford to leave 5%+ profit on turnover sitting on the table.

You won’t get the very best price on every bet, but the principle is that you should have yourself set up to maximise your chance of getting the best and increasing your overall average winning dividend.

This means having accounts with multiple betting agencies so that you can take the best fixed price when it presents and not missing out because you don’t have an account. It also means having a Betfair account so that you can make bets on the exchange when the price advantage makes it more profitable.

You don’t need to have a large amount in each account; just 2-3 average bets is enough as a minimum. This means that when a price opportunity presents itself, you can take advantage of it. If one account runs out of money then it’s just a small top up, even if you take it from another account that has been winning.

I know it’s not convenient to maintain more than one or two betting accounts, but it’s not exactly hard work either and there’s extra profit to be made!

 

4. Look to back good favourites

 

Having a bias against backing favourites for no other reason than the fact they are the favourite will greatly inhibit your chance of making money as a punter.

On average, the price of the favourite is closer to its true winning chance than any other horse in the market.  If you backed all Metropolitan favourites over the last 3 years, then your result would have been a loss of 5.3% on turnover, even less at top fluctuation. Compare that to 2^nd favourites which lost 7% on turnover, 3^rd favourites lost 12% on turnover and 4^th favourites lost 14% on turnover.

The first time I ever made a profit over a full year of betting came as a result of primarily backing favourites that I thought were more profitable than the average and avoiding those that looked too risky. If I didn’t like the favourite in the race, then I simply passed and went on to the next race. That was over 15 years ago, and while these days I’m much more diverse in my strategy, the underlying principle is still as relevant as ever.

The other benefit from backing good favourites is that their higher strike rate really helps to keep losing runs at a more manageable level. Dealing with losing runs is the most challenging part of being a successful punter so any strategy that helps you to minimise them and can add profit to your result at the same time is absolute gold.

 

5. Minimise your regret

 

Punting is all about making decisions in the face of uncertainty, and the quality of those decisions we make is ultimately what determines our level of success. Have you ever made the decision to back a horse even though deep down you felt it was probably not the right thing to do?

The concept of minimising regret is well known in decision-making theory. Applied to horse racing, it means that when you are faced with a decision about betting, consider which outcome you are likely to regret the most. In other words, ask yourself: “Will I regret it more if I bet and this horse loses… or if I don’t bet and the horse wins?”

Perhaps you really like a horse, but $1.80 seems too short. On the one hand, you don’t want to pass up a likely winner, but then on the other han,d you know deep down that the price isn’t right. What will you regret more? Will you feel like a mug if you bet anyway and the horse loses because deep down you knew the price wasn’t worth the risk? Or will you feel like you’ve really missed out on an opportunity to profit if the horse wins? Your answer to that question will tell you the best decision to make.

Maintaining an even state of mind is critical to success as a punter, and minimising your regret is essential to achieving that. As soon as I started analysing my decisions with this question in mind, they became easier to make and, more importantly, I was much more at ease with the outcome, regardless of what it was. I learned to accept that sometimes horses will win when I didn’t bet, but that’s more than made up for by the satisfaction experienced when I followed my instincts, and it saved me money.

 

6. Avoid anchoring bias – don’t rely too heavily on one factor

 

Like most punters, my early beliefs about the importance of different factors in racing were driven by popular opinion and principles that were perpetuated in the media. Beliefs such as:

• “Wide barrier draws are a disadvantage”
• “Big weights or weight increases make it hard to win”
• “Don’t back first up horses”
• “Coming back in distance is a disadvantage”
• “Horses that haven’t raced in the last 14-21 days are a fitness risk”
• “Horses not proven in the track conditions are a risk”
• “Horses not proven at the distance are a risk”

 

The list goes on…..

Many of these beliefs are simply untrue and do more to damage your potential to make a profit than help it. We’ll explore many of these beliefs in the future with actual historical data to show just how true or false they really are.

However, the point I want to make here is that it’s easy to focus too much on one factor about a horse and let that dictate your decision. That aside, the truth about that factor might actually be the opposite of what you believe.

The best example of this is wide barrier draws. There was a time when I would immediately eliminate any horse as a potential bet because it was drawn in a wide barrier. I believed it was so much harder to win when drawn wide and didn’t like the uncertainty of my horse possibly being caught wide or working too hard to find a position.

The truth is, though, that the statistics for wide barriers show they aren’t nearly the disadvantage many punters believe. Every race is on a case-by-case basis, but wide draws are sometimes an advantage and inside draws are a disadvantage.

Regardless of the influence on winning chance, data shows that the betting market more than compensates for any extra risk from a wide barrier position by offering a better price. These days I love backing wide drawn horses that have the right overall profile, because I know I’m getting a little extra value from the market.

 

I have a general principle when betting that I don’t let one uncertain factor alone be the difference between betting and not betting. If everything else, including the price of the horse, feels right, then I am happy to bet.

 

Once I did this I found that my decisions were easier to make and more importantly that I was benefiting from the extra profit to be gained on good betting prospects that had factors the market was mistakenly considering a risk, such as wide barriers, big weights, no form at the track, first start over the distance, etc.

 

Wrapping Up…

 

The journey to becoming a successful punter is a gradual one, but the key is to keep moving forward and improving your game. Even when you start achieving success, continuous improvement is still essential to stay ahead of the pack.

The six rules mentioned above have played a key role in significantly increasing my betting profits over the last 15 years and I’m sure they can do the same for you!  If you aren’t happy with your current betting results, then I encourage you to put these rules into practice and see what difference they can make.