Success as a punter is a process of continuous improvement. It doesn’t matter how successful you’ve been in the past, if you aren’t constantly striving to move forward, it’s only a matter of time before you get left behind.

A key part of improving as a punter is reflecting on how you do your analysis and make betting decisions. What factors tend to influence you more than others? What are you biased towards or against? Are there any weaknesses you can improve upon to make your betting more profitable?

Based on my experience in dealing with a large number of punters over many years, I’ve put together a list of five of the most common mistakes I see in form analysis… things you should definitely avoid in an effort to improve your own game.

 

1. Assuming that favourites are poor value

 

There’s a natural tendency for many punters to assume that the shorter the price of the horse, the worse the betting value. More specifically, the favourite in a race is usually under the odds and therefore not worth considering as a bet.

Value isn’t determined by the horse’s market price in isolation, but by that price relative to the horse’s real chance of winning. If Winx went around at $1.70 in the Chipping Norton Stakes held recently, then even the most casual race observer would have identified that as enormous betting value. Why? Because her winning chance was clearly better than the 59% implied by a $1.70 market price.

The truth is that on average, favourites represent much better value in betting markets compared to horses lower down the order. Over the last 2 years for example, backing all metropolitan favourites returned a loss of just -4% POT, while 2^nd favourites returned -6% POT, 3^rd-4^th favourites returned -10.5% POT and those longer in the market returned an even greater loss.

Don’t make the mistake that assuming most favourites are poor value, especially those that are supported in the market, unless you have very specific reasons.

A good favourite represents one of the best types of bets you can make in racing. Bookmakers tend to be more generous with their prices (hence the better POT% compared to other horses) and they naturally have a much higher strike rate than others, which is a big help in managing your losing runs.

 

2. Dismissing a horse because of a wide barrier

 

It might seem logical that a wide barrier is a significant disadvantage for a horse and we hear in racing previews every day about how certain horses are “betting risks” because of their wide draw.

Every race and horse is a case by case basis, but on average, the market’s bias towards inside barriers makes them less profitable than outside barriers. For example, genuine chances up to $10 in in metropolitan races drawn barrier 1-4 have returned -6.6% POT, while those drawn barrier 10+ have returned -3.5% POT. On average the market overacts too much to wide barriers in its pricing and that provides an additional profit margin for those horses as betting prospects.

If a horse lacks early speed and a significant change to a very wide draw is more likely to see it settle much further back than normal or suitable for this race, then by all means that is good reason to be put off a bet. However, don’t be put off simply because of a general bias against wide barriers and you should almost never let yourself be put off backing an on-pace runner that is drawn wide. They are among the most profitable bets you can find in racing.

 

3. Being put off by big weights or weight increases

 

Weight is the basis of the handicapping system in racing and has been a central theme of form analysis literature over many decades. Understanding that weight plays a role in racing is important, but it should be kept in perspective. Weight is just one of any number of factors that can influence the outcome of a race and is nowhere near the most important.

In reality the market accounts for weight reasonably accurately in its pricing of runners so unless you are using a rating based approach or something else that combines the influence of weight with the strength of race and other factors that might affect a horse, there is virtually no value to be gained by focusing on weight carried or weight changes from previous runs. If anything, the advantage is contrary to the popular opinion.

For example, genuine chances up to $10 in metro races that carried 59kg or more have returned a 19% SR and -3.7% POT against an overall market average for horses up to $10 of 17.4% SR and -7.2% POT. The runners with the “big weights” have actually won more often and provided a better return to punters.

 

When it comes to weight increases from last start, horses that have jumped 5kg or more in weight and started up to $10 in the market have returned a 17.6% SR and -4.8% POT against the same market average above. Yet again the runners that are perceived to be disadvantaged in a weight sense have actually performed better than the average of all horses.

 

4. Looking for certainty or supreme confidence on every bet

 

Successful punting is about taking calculated gambles when you feel confident that the price on offer is better than the horses chance of winning. It involves making decisions in the face of incomplete information or at the very least some uncertainty.

Many punters make the mistake of assuming that every element of uncertainty about a horse or race represents a betting risk and good reason not to bet.

Don’t get me wrong, there is a tipping point in all cases where too much uncertainty makes it difficult to bet. However, don’t fall into the trap of assuming that the higher your confidence and lower your uncertainty, the more profitable the betting prospect is.

It’s great if your horse comes off a good last start win, has a good weight, inside barrier, top jockey and is proven at the track, distance and in the going. There might be absolutely nothing you can fault about the horse! That however does not necessarily have any relation to the key question: “is the price on offer actually better than the horse’s winning chance?”

Your confidence about a bet should be related to an assessment of the degree of value you are getting, not how many factors you think represent positives about the horse’s winning chance.

Sometimes that means taking calculated risks with certain factors you are uncertain about because the price on offer is more than fair to take that chance. That’s an assessment only you can make in the context of the individual horse and overall race.

I’ll gladly back a horse that is not proven at the distance or in the going if the price seems right to do so. I know that the market tends to compensate a little too much for uncertainty, so while some may fail, more than enough will win and those bets are typically more profitable than the average.

 

The key point is: Don’t think you have to be supremely confident about every aspect of a horse / race in order to bet. Learn to think about your confidence more in relation to how attractive the price is for the known and unknown factors about the horse.

 

5. Focusing too much on the last start run

 

It’s natural to let the last start performance of horses dominate your form analysis and betting decisions. However, it’s important to recognise that there is much more to predicting the outcome of a race and making good betting decisions than just what happened last start.

If you follow a code of football, then when it comes to predicting the winner of a match you don’t just look at the last match of each team. Instinctively you have a feel for the level of ability each team has and you are able to weigh that up with their recent form to make a more well-rounded assessment. A lesser team that might have unexpectedly won its last match isn’t going to be favoured over a proven higher quality team that might have had an off day and under-performed in its last match.

The same principles apply to horse racing form analysis, although it’s obviously much more complicated with a greater number of variables and competitors.

Forgiving a good horse for a moderate last start run can open up very profitable betting opportunities, especially if you can find genuine excuses. One of the keys to balancing last start runs with overall form is looking at the recent starting prices of each horse. The previous starting price(s) of a horse represents its expected performance and is just as important a predictor for upcoming races as the horse’s actual performance.

If a good horse had an off day but was expected to run very well (i.e. short starting price) then there is every reason to forgive the run and assess the horse on their prior form. On average, they represent much better betting prospects than an inferior horse that might have suddenly run well last start when it was expected to be finish somewhere back in the pack.

It’s impossible to create fixed rules for every scenario you come across, but the key message is:  Don’t become too focused in your form analysis on last start runs only. Don’t dismiss good horses because of one poor run and equally, be cautious about horses that suddenly improved and ran well beyond expectations at their last start. Look at overall form profile of a horse (much like you would for a football team) and consider that in conjunction with their last start performance. Your race assessments will become more accurate and you’ll end up making more profitable betting decisions.