The last day of the Rosehill carnival has become almost like the ‘off’ day of the Sydney autumn. It reaches a crescendo for Golden Slipper day, then drops back a cog, before upping the ante again for the two weeks of The Championships.
Last week’s ratings are a reflection of the drop off, although the Vinery Stud Stakes produced a very classy winning performance that put the boys from last week’s Rosehill Guineas in the shade.
- Almandin 102
- Ambitious 100.1
- Who Shot Thebarman 99.9
A brilliant tactical ride from Kerrin McEvoy won the day here for the 2016 Melbourne Cup winner Almandin, who had enough in the tank to stave off Japanese import Ambitious at the end of the 2400m.
Almandin now joins Might And Power, Ethereal and Makybe Diva as the only Cup winners to also win the Tancred.
This is consistent with Almandin’s other ratings this campaign, following a 103 first up and 101.4 when he should have finished closer in the Australian Cup.
While a winning performance, we would have expected him to rate a little higher stepping up to a more suitable trip of 2400m. With Gailo Chop failing to see out the 2400m though, it was comfortably enough to see him home. This win is well short of his monster spring peak of 107, which at this stage looks a one off spike.
Intuitively it may seem questionable that Almandin wins a G1 race and doesn’t rate higher than his previous runs, but the merit of the race is borne out by both the speed measure which don’t suggest a higher mark is warranted and the form of other runners, including the third placegetter Who Shot Thebarman, who put himself in contention for another tilt on the Sydney Cup with his stout finishing effort.
Since running second in last year’s Sydney Cup, The Barman has elevated beyond a 100 rating just once in his past eight starts. His 99.9 here is his second best performance in that time and 3rd best rating in his last 20 starts. 6th placed Auvray was beaten 2.3 lengths and recorded his second best career rating in 23 Australian starts.
Gailo Chop failed to run out 2400m so he’s an unreliable reference in this race, while we have Single Gaze running 0.6 lengths below her previous start. These types of crosschecks with our speed performance model are an important part in the rating process and offer a good point of reference to support the ratings.
The interesting runner was Ambitious, who improved sharply on his Australian debut in the Australian Cup. This was still well below the heights he reached in Japan, but certainly encouraging going forward.
VINERY STUD STAKES
- Hiyaam 102.2
- Unforgotten 99.5
- Aloisia 96.1
Off just the one 1500m lead-up run, Hiyaam has elevated to a monster new peak here, leading throughout and running comfortably stronger figures than the boys in the Tulloch Stakes on the same card.
In terms of three-year-olds beyond a mile this season, Hiyaam’s rating is second only to Aloisia’s Moonee Valley Vase (104) last October.
While much has been made of the runs of Unforgotten and Aloisia in the minor placegetters’ roles, Hiyaam’s win has to be highly respected. She did all the work from the front at a decent speed, gave a strong kick and found when challenged. Plus she was only second up.
In terms of the 2400m of the Oaks, she was only 2.8lengths away in last year’s VRC Oaks and she’s a clearly superior filly now. Her top class performance here has well and truly stamped her credentials for the Australian Oaks in two weeks time.
The same can be said about Unforgotten who carried on from her excellent win in the Phar Lap Stakes with a strong finale here to reel in all rivals bar the winner. It was an outstanding run with powerful sectionals, however making the assumption she will automatically appreciate 2400m better than the winner is a little presumptive.
Aloisia has returned her best rating for the prep here after being forced to race wide and back in the field.
She has two 104 ratings in the locker from the spring and though this was still well below that level of performance, it was certainly encouraging and you know she’s got scope to go higher again next time.
The question for her remains the step up in distance to 2400m. She went into last year’s VRC Oaks as a dominant favourite, but was easy in betting and ran poorly by her previous standards. The uncertainty is whether that was a factor of the race distance or was there some other issue leading into the race?
- Cellarman 98.5
- Ecuador 99.8
- Mister Sea Wolf 96.9
This race is a Doncaster Prelude in name only.
Cellarman was rewarded for a string of consistent performances over a campaign that has missed just one month since July last year.
Ecuador ran his usual honest fresh race, while Mister Sea Wolf has elevated slightly on his previous best Australian rating.
- Levendi 97
- Astoria 96.9
- Weather With You 96.6
This race rated around the level we expect of The Tulloch and comfortably lower than the Rosehill Guineas.
D’Argento rated 100.5 in last week’s Rosehill Guineas, but of those going to the Derby, Tangled was next best with a 98.6.
You can assume Vin De Dance ran a touch superior to that before relegation and therefore it follows Furore would have been up above the 99 mark if he’d had clear air.
So while this race falls a little short of the Rosehill Guineas, it’s not alarmingly so and therefore you wouldn’t put the pen through it from a Derby point of view.
Weather With You looks a genuine stayer, while the one that does look to have scope to improve sharply is Belfast (93.7). He put in an outstanding run in the Tulloch from a mile back in the field, but has been done no favours by the Derby barrier draw with 17.